More Optimistic about Economy than Robert Weidemer per his book ‘Aftershock’ (aftershock-economy-book-review-Part 3)


More Optimistic about Economy than Robert Weidemer per his book ‘Aftershock’ (aftershock-economy-book-review-Part 3)

Since I read Robert Weidemer’s first edition of ‘Aftershock’ in July 2010 (and then his second edition Fall 2011), I often think about his dire prediction about the high probability of severe economic catastrophe perhaps as early as 2013. However, I have always been more optimistic than him. For those unfamiliar with Weidemer let me briefly state that his prediction in 2005 about a financial crisis in 2008 was stunningly accurate. After this prediction in 2005, he was laughed at by CNBS in 2005. Weidemer is a successful investment advisor/economist. His economic analysis of the current state of the world economy is exhausting and thorough and well argued. I greatly respect his economic analyses. Below are two of my earlier analyses of his perspectives.

https://economics501.wordpress.com/2012/01/11/aftershock-economy-jan-2012-perspectives-on-confronting-us-debt/

https://economics501.wordpress.com/2011/11/25/aftershock-economy-book-review/

Weidemer argues that the combination of growing debt and tremendous increase of the money supply by the Federal Reserve (Fed’s balance sheet is almost $3 Trillion now but only approx $1 Trillion on 2008) plus lack of political resolve to deal with the debt will result in severe inflation and a US Dollar collapse.

I feel that we still have a definite opportunity to avert this. Weidemer correctly states that we need much more than a company such as Apple generating economic growth and jobs. He argues we need many more times the recent growth of an Apple. I think the US Economy is at the verge of explosive economic growth but we must act fast – within several months. Maybe we have until early 2013. What can result in significant acceleration of economic growth which will therefore decrease rate of our growing debt and satisfy our foreign creditors? Oil and natural gas exploration and development in the US.

FACT: US has 60 years of oil and 100 years of natural gas.

Developing that unimpeded would likely result in over 1,000,000 new jobs within few years, decrease our trade deficit, grow the economy in multiple ways, and lower energy costs. Add budget restrictions and we may be on our way rectifying our huge debt.

This is my view. What do you think? Please add your perspectives here.

Economics501, a VP at major Investment Bank, 29 years on Wall Street, ex venture capitalist
April 7, 2012

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About economics501

1 - free market Capitalist; 2 - Fitness Entrepreneur; 56 years old, VP at an Investment Bank in NYC, ex Venture Capitalist, happily married with 2 girls. Education: Rutgers and NYU. I allow Ted Hruzd, my friend to blog at will here. He has many posts here. I have known Ted since we were both students at NYU. Ted also works for an Investment Bank as a VP in Equity Global Markets. ------------------------- I was very very Socialist leaning as a 22 year old. I then strongly believed in Gov role in helping the poor. However, as a USDA Child Nutrition Programs, I personally accounted for millions of fraud, abuse, and waste of tax payer money. I came to believe that the poor would be best served with less Gov programs and more with direct aid via tax system. Then after 5 years I became a free market capitalist, was a venture capitalist in 2007 and helped start 2 high tech companies. I dedicate this site to champion free market capitalism as the best road to Prosperity. Please join in. If you disagree, fine, but please post with dignity and class and be civil. Argue with facts always.
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4 Responses to More Optimistic about Economy than Robert Weidemer per his book ‘Aftershock’ (aftershock-economy-book-review-Part 3)

  1. NWS says:

    I have not read the book but each of us must ponder the question about what are the potential effects of our ongoing budget deficits (what, one or two balanced budgets since WWII?) as well as our unfunded liabilities in Social Security, Medicare, public employee pensions and even private pensions. Raising taxes sounds good but there simply isn’t enough money to tax to raise the revenue we need. The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to near zero but one only has to look at Japan to see how successful this policy can be. My point in all of this is that so long as the best arguments we can muster are that “Romney wants to destroy the middle class” or “Obama is a Communist”, we’re screwed.

    • economics501 says:

      Absolutely we must argue and persuade more effectively as you point out. We must explain our debt scenario in ways common Americans can understand. Only then will we be able to implement significant solutions.

  2. Howard L. Payne says:

    I believe the fact that our legislators are unlikely to vote to appropriately control pork projects, campaign funding or term limits combined with the electorate’s lack of civic responsibility and knowledge of political history has produced a perfect storm. Those who are in a position to lead have no incentive to be statesmen and those who have assumed the mantel of near fully democratized voting power deserve each other. Neither the Fed, nor the Chinese can rescue us if we continue on this path. Runaway waste and corruption will result in chaos when the bill is finally presented to the middle class tax payer.
    We have to return to more traditional republican government. We have to budget for sensible solvency in the public sector and growth in the private sector. And most of all, we need to educate our masses as to their political roots.
    CBS aired a piece this Sunday calling for the Constitution and it’s outmoded founders to be discarded. Texas may truncate American History schoolbooks to include only history starting in the progressive era, as they have tried to do for years. Wasn’t it Madison who feared that full democracy would lead to the citizens emptying the treasury? Our educators and legislators are only too happy to lead them to the trough. I AM AFRAID FOR OUR COUNTRY.

    • economics501 says:

      I totally agree with all your points. Action item for us who understand the dire situation our economy and citizen mindset — post and blog and educate as many as you can. Call out our mainstream media when they go too far with their Left propaganda. Contact and tweet our Congress representatives. Educate them on the pending Aftershock economy in large part to their failed policies. Encourage them to reverse course so we can better handle the Aftershock economy when it hits.

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